Nifty Outlook for 27th January 2012

So finally, Nifty achieved the target of 5169 envisaged by us during the 1st week of Jan. Today's Key support level 5125,while key resistance level would be 5202.




Nifty Outlook for 25th January 2012

Nifty barely 42 points away from our target of 5169.In the first week of January(2nd/3rd Jan) we have had mentioned in trend check table that close above 4710 will trigger short squeeze rally of 140 odd points.There was some consolidation before nifty broke 4854 on upside. Bears were squeezed out from the system  above 4938 level.We have had mentioned in trend check table that breakout above 4938 will trigger 230 points rally. We were harping to the point that the rally could be as big as Oct  2011 rally(4710 to 5399).Today's key resistance level 5169 (closing basis),while support  exists at 5086(closing basis).Long traders should book profit  around 5169 as market is extremely overbought and  bears will pounce on the slightest negative news(global or local) which  can trigger sharp vertical fall.Profit booking expected below 5086 level,Termination of the rally below 4968 level.Short positions will be created as and when nifty breaches 5086/5068/5025 level.

Nifty Outlook for 24th January 2012

On 30/60 min chart, Nifty will gain above 5062.Conversely,correction will set in,should the nifty break 5004 on 30/60 min chart.Huge downside risk opens up below 4968/4938 levels.


Nifty Outlook for 20th January 2012

Nifty closed above 5000.We were of the view that rally this time will be similar to the one seen in Oct 2011.Street sentiments changed from Risk aversion to Risk on.Market can humble the best,so not taking anything for granted,long positions from 4812/4854 should trail stop loss at 4938/4982.On 3rd Jan we have had mentioned that hourly close above 4710 will trigger powerful bear rally.Will this turn out to be an another classical bear rally?Well,for now budget holds the  key & will be the single most high weightage factor as a trend decider.

Which factor can play spoilsport ?-- Last month we added two factors in Risk matrix -- Anticipation of  a reformist budget (advantage bulls) & Iran issue(advantage bears) -- The first factor ; Street expectation of a reformist budget is fueling current stock market rally aided by weaker dollar v/s Rupee.Iran factor  & revisit of  EURO crisis could play spoilsport & then of course,in this age of internet,selective leakage of rumors of multiple defaults can trigger deep corrections.So traders should stay with stop loss,Respect market trend,maximize profits in winning trades(by employing TSL method),minimize loss in losing trades(by employing MSL method)

TREND

Very short term - Bullish
Short Term term - Last stage of euphoria
Medium term Trend -Budget will decide the trend.

Nifty Outlook for 19th January 2012

Today's Key support & resistance level - 4938 & 5026.Yesterday,Nifty snapped a three- day winning streak.Nifty edged lower in choppy market,however the indices  closed above 4938 Level.Nifty may see intraday levels of 5026 during the day.Shorting opportunity exists below 4938,until then it is advisable to avoid positional shorts.

First signs of meaningful correction : 8EMA dropping below 34EMA on day charts,sudden drop of SLOW STOCH below 80,VIX rising above 25/25.50, EOD closing below 4938 & 4879.

Currently 8EMA is above 34EMA,though market looks overbought,FIIs cash buying coupled with weakness in dollar against rupee is fueling the current rally.

Nifty Outlook for 18th January 2012

Today's key support & resistance level - 4938  & 4978.Though RSI suggests that Market is overbought,DI are indicating that this bear rally is much stronger,similar to the rally seen in Oct 2011 - From 4710 to 5360 .SMR is  indicating that there is excessive of  greed in the system.Long traders should keep tight stop at 4879.Nifty will see more traction above 4978 closing.



NIFTY SPOT TRADING LEVELS TABLE -  CREATED ON 2nd Jan 2012,UPDATED ON 27th Jan 2012.


NIFTY SPOT PREVIOUS  DAY CLOSE - 5158.30

2	5199	5199	5288
B2	5192	5178	5143
B1	5187	5165	5053
1	5180	5144	4908
A2	5171	5092	4836
A1	5165	5060	4792
=L	5155	5009	4720
=N	5148	4988	4575
=S	5143	4975	4485
1	5136	4953	4340
a1	5127	4902	4268
a2	5121	4870	4224
2	5111	4818	4152
b1	5104	4797	4007
b2	5100	4784	3917
3	5092	4763	3772
	SPOT NIFTY LEVELS - DAY	SPOT NIFTY LEVELS - WEEKLY	SPOT NIFTY LEVELS - MONTHLY
	27th Jan 2012	23rd Jan -27th Jan 2012	2nd Jan -31st Jan 2012

NIFTY SPOT TREND CHECK TABLE - CREATED ON 2nd Jan 2012,UPDATED ON 27th JAN 2012

Trend Check - EOH/EOD/EOW/EOM Closing	Sentiment	Signal Status	Trade Result
EOW closing Below 4587(Two Consecutive)	Nifty may  fill the gap of 18th May 2009 - Extreme Bearish Signal	Pending
Nifty trading below 4580 & 4531 for 2 consecutive days	Confirmation of Descending Triangle -Breadown 350-400 pts	Pending
Nifty breaking 2 key support levels 4720/4664	Nifty may revisit - 4531	Pending
EOD Closing above 4710/4720	Short Squeeze - 140 Points Rally	Confirmed -3rd Jan	Success
Nifty trading between 4664 - 4787	Neutral Trend	Confirmed -3rd-9th Jan	N/A
EOH closing above 4812 + EOD closing above 4854	Very Short term trend reversal-Bullish	Confirmed - 10-11th Jan	Success
EOD closing below 4879	Termination of Rally -2nd Confirmation	Pending
EOD closing above 4938	Breakout -230 Points Rally -Resistance @ 5086	Confirmed - 17th Jan	Success
EOD +Intraday -4938,4968,4987	Breach of all 3 levels on closing basis - End of Bullish Trend	Pending
EOD closing above 5169(Two consecutive)	Short term trend reversal -Bullish Trend	Pending
EOW closing Above 5378	Medium Term Trend Reversal-Bullish	Pending